Forecast scorecard — Crypto
We re-score our own weather forecasts against what actually happened next, every day. We don't cherry-pick the flattering numbers: sample sizes, the date the record starts, and days that are still awaiting evaluation are all shown as they are.
Market: US · Korea · Japan · Hong Kong · Crypto
Not enough forecast days have completed 21 trading days yet, so we can't compare. Sample still too small
Whole period
Baseline: across all days regardless of the forecast, the average return 21 trading days later was +23.87% (10 scored days).
| Weather | Forecast days | Avg after 5 days | Avg after 21 days | Share up (21d) | Awaiting | vs baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunny | 0 | – | – | – | 0 | – |
| Cloudy | 11 | +0.06% | – | – | 11 | – |
| Rain | 15 | +8.81% | +25.38% | 100% | 9 | +1.51%p |
| Storm | 4 | -0.92% | +21.60% | 100% | 0 | -2.27%p |
| All | 30 | +4.62% | +23.87% | 100% | 20 | – |
Month by month
| Month | Weather | Forecast days | Avg after 5 days | Avg after 21 days | Share up (21d) | Awaiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | Cloudy | 3 | – | – | – | 3 |
| 2026-09 | Rain | 3 | +3.00% | – | – | 3 |
| 2026-08 | Cloudy | 8 | +0.06% | – | – | 8 |
| 2026-08 | Rain | 12 | +9.78% | +25.38% | 100% | 6 |
| 2026-08 | Storm | 4 | -0.92% | +21.60% | 100% | 0 |
If you had followed the weather
Following the weather: +0.01% cumulative, max drawdown -3.85% Sample still too small
Just holding: +21.82% cumulative, max drawdown -3.68%
Limits
- The record only starts in July 2026, so the sample is very small. Any cell with fewer than 30 cases could easily be chance.
- Only index returns are measured. Real fills, taxes and FX are not included, and the 'followed the weather' cost is an assumed 0.1% per switch.
- The forecast rules have changed a few times (see the rule change history). Past results do not guarantee future ones.